inflation, rising interest rates, and early macro headwinds have kept the bulls away from both increase stocks. But over the past 12 months, Airbnb ‘s stock price alone declined 10 % as Lyft ‘s stock crashed by about 60 % .
Let ‘s see why Airbnb withstood the commercialize downturn better than Lyft, and if it will remain the more resilient growth banal over the future few quarters .
Airbnb offers inflation-resistant growth
Airbnb ‘s tax income fell 30 % in 2020 as the pandemic disrupted global travel, but surged 77 % to $ 6 billion in 2021 as those headwinds waned. Its guests booked 300.6 million nights and experiences last class, up 56 % from 2020, as its gross engagement value ( GBV ) soared 96 % to $ 46.9 billion.
That growth continued in the first base quarter of 2022 : Its tax income increased 70 % year over year to $ 1.5 billion, its reserve nights and experiences rose 59 % to 102.1 million, and its GBV grew 67 % to $ 17.2 billion. It expects its tax income to grow 56 % -64 % in the second base quarter, even as the Russo-Ukrainian war disrupts travel across parts of Europe .
Airbnb can maintain such a fortunate forecast because its commercial enterprise model is well-insulated from inflation. It wo n’t need to deal with any rising commodity costs, budget-conscious travelers will likely select cheaper Airbnb rentals rather of pricier hotels, and economic headwinds could prompt its hosts to rent out extra properties to generate more passive voice income .
Airbnb ‘s profitableness is besides improving. Its net loss narrowed from $ 4.6 billion in 2020 to $ 352 million in 2021, and it narrowed to good $ 19 million in the first quarter of 2022. Its adjusted earnings before matter to, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ( EBITDA ) improved from a damaging $ 251 million in 2020 to a positive $ 1.6 billion in 2021, and it generated a positive adjusted EBITDA of $ 229 million in the first base quarter of 2022 .
For the wide year. analysts expect Airbnb ‘s gross and adjusted EBITDA to increase by 38 % and 50 %, respectively, with a net profit of $ 1.2 billion .
Lyft faces more inflation-related headwinds
Lyft ‘s tax income declined 35 % in 2020 as passengers booked fewer rides during the pandemic. however, its gross rose 36 % to $ 2.4 billion in 2021 as the lockdown measures were relaxed .
In the beginning one-fourth of 2022, Lyft ‘s tax income increased 44 % year over year to $ 876 million. Its number of active riders rose 32 % to 17.8 million, and its average tax income per rider grew 9 % to $ 49.18.
Lyft ‘s profitableness has besides been improving. Its net loss narrowed from $ 1.8 billion in 2020 to $ 1 billion in 2021, then narrowed again to $ 197 million in the first quarter of 2022. Its align EBITDA improved from a negative $ 755 million in 2020 to a positive $ 93 million in 2021 and stayed in the black with a plus adjust EBITDA of $ 55 million in the first quarter of 2022 .
Lyft expects its tax income to grow 24 % -31 % class over year in the second quarter, but for its adjusted EBITDA to decline 16 % -58 %. That abrupt earnings refuse can be attributed to higher fuel costs, which prompted it to add a new fuel overload in the first quarter, and its plans to raise its wages to attract more drivers to the platform. In other words, Lyft is much more expose to inflationary headwinds than Airbnb .
For the fully class, analysts expect Lyft ‘s gross to rise 33 %, and for its align EBITDA to jump 155 % to $ 237 million, with a narrow net passing of $ 721 million .
But those forecasts are likely excessively high since Lyft ‘s guidance for an adjusted EBITDA decline in the second quarter broadly missed analysts ‘ expectations for 249 % year-over-year growth .
The obvious winner: Airbnb
Airbnb trades at 11 times this year ‘s sales, while Lyft trades at less than two times this year ‘s sales. however, Airbnb commands a slight premium because it ‘s one of the few growth stocks that are still worth owning as ostentation and rising interest rates rattle the market .
The same ca n’t be said about Lyft, which deserves to trade at a discount because it will face significant macro headwinds this year. It besides does n’t have much room to raise its prices to offset its higher spending, since it distillery faces intense competition from its larger rival Uber.
Airbnb ‘s stock might remain volatile over the adjacent few months, but it ‘s hush a solid long-run investing in this challenging grocery store .